The Musical Innertube - Volume 2, Number 179 - Robert Speel

DON

Robert Spiel is an associate professor and program chair of Political Science at Penn State Behrend, which is located in Erie, PA. He researches many aspects of American politics, including elections and voting behavior, state and urban politics, Congress and the Presidency, public policy, as well as ethnic and racial politics and even Canadian politics, that sort of covers everything, he's got the whole thing done. He's written a book called Changing Patterns of Voting in the Northern United States. It's about the creation of the regional divide of red states and blue states in the United States, and he's here today to help us discover how we got where we are today in politics here in the good old USA. Robert, thanks for being with us today.

ROB

Thank you for having me.

JOHN

Terrific.

DON

One of the things that has occurred to John and I over the years, as we've talked to various people attached with politics is, is how things seem to be upending in the political world. I don't think maybe even 15 or 20 years ago, if you had told somebody that Republicans are going to be for the common man and Democrats would be standing for the elite that they would laugh you out of the room. That it seems to have twisted around even in my lifetime in John's lifetime, to a point where Democrats used to be the working man's party and Republicans were the party of the penthouse that seems to have changed. Do you agree with that, and if so, why did we get on that path?

ROB

Yeah, definitely. I mean I teach a class about American political campaigns and elections at Penn State, and what I like to teach the students. And I showed them a chart in the 1950s. There was a direct correlation between educational level and voting Republican. So the more years of education, formal education that you had, the more likely you were to vote Republican. Today, it's the opposite. Especially among white voters, the more years of education you have, the more likely you are to vote Democrat. And the strongest base for the Republican Party are white voters who did not have education beyond high school. You're also seeing some changes in that direction among non-white voters, especially in this past election last year. What I do is I like to teach students there were five issues in the 1960s that I think kind of broke apart the old party coalitions that we think of as you know, working class people vote Democrat and wealthy people Republican and I can get into that in a few minutes. But let me give you both a chance to make a comment or ask another question here.

JOHN

OK, I'd love to ask a question, I mean. Sitting here. I recall only in 2000, from 2000 to about 2008, when the administration was the administration of foreign policy, backed by military might. That we went out and we strung up the bad guys and rebuilt broken countries. And basically we knew what we were doing as far as that you know, we projected American military might. And now it seems as though we're rushing toward a kind of protectionism and isolationism which hasn't been seen since the 20s. In fact, a lot of what the playbook seems to be hasn't been seen since the 20s, if you ask me. But you could tell me if I'm wrong, but this does seem to have overtones of Coolidge, overtones of even McKinley. It just seems as though that whole thing has switched utterly, whereas it used to be, we're the guys who can project might, we can go to other countries, we can intervene in history - to let's be done with all that, not even treaties, you know, we'll make war by tariffs.

ROB

Yeah, and well, Trump, our current President, Donald Trump, seems to be an admirer of William McKinley, as you're probably aware, I mean, he, he just, he just he just renamed the highest point in the United States, the highest mountain the United States in Alaska, which was named for McKinley for no good reason and had been renamed to Mount Denali under President Obama, and he and Trump has renamed it as Mount McKinley, which has upset people in Alaska. And he, yeah. McKinley is known for his high tariff policy, which helped him win the 1896 presidential election. And he's known for basically starting the Arab US imperialism. Where you know the Spanish American war, where the United States took over Puerto Rico and Guam and the Philippines for a long time and and also he annexed to Hawaii. After the monarch there had been overthrown. Yeah, we do seem to be going back to some extent. You know, the current president seems to like that part of history. He's been talking about how he like. The high tariff paid of the late 1800s, when the United States used to impose high taxes on imports, and he thought that benefited the economy. It also led to the era that we know as the Gilded Age. Today I, you know, that may have worked in the 1880s and 1890s when we didn't have airplanes.

Speaker

Yet.

ROB

And when ships had to have, you know, have dangerous crossings across the Atlantic when they might hit icebergs and things like that, I'm not sure that's it a good way to govern or or run the world economy in the year 2025. And obviously, you know, back then. Countries that had a lot of military might would just go and take over any other country they like to, and the based on the European power splitting up Africa. But in the 21st century, that's with the United Nations. That's generally considered inappropriate and act of war and and gets people quite angry. So.

DON

I was listening to an interview recently with the editor of The Economist that magazine out of Out of LonDON that talks about economies basically, and she said something along the lines of President Trump has talked about a golden age, but every time I hear him, it's Gilded Age.

Speaker

Yeah.

DON

Because she yeah, she has that same opinion. You do that a lot of the Trump policies are twisting. Back to where we used to be and not looking forward to where we want to be.

ROB

Yeah. And I think that's a common theme with DONald Trump. I mean, a lot of, you know, economic policies seem to be from the 1890s, a lot of his. Social policies and the way he views society seems to be from when he was a young man in 1960s and he still imagines some of the crime and disorder of the streets. That we had in this country in the 1960s rather than the way things are now. So I mean, you know how his own mind works. I, I I can't, you know, interpret that. But there does seem to be an attitude, at least among his on his heart of going back to some times that he thinks, you know, make America great again. That's his slogan, right. I'm not sure if voters felt that way before he became. Accurate in politics, but now that he's become the leader of the Republican Party, you find a lot of his supporters who will express those same attitudes, probably without thinking about them too deeply.

JOHN

So is this. Now you know I'm. I'm not asking this as a a member of any party. Right. You know, I'm. I'm sort of like a Groucho Marx. You know, I DON't want to belong to any party that would have me as a member. But having said that. I'm wondering there are a lot of people who seem to be signing on to policies that they were bad mouthing. Seems like 20 minutes ago now. Is this all bandwagoning? Is this just seeing that? Oh, we can win this way or we can stay in power this way. So let's just all do it no matter what it is. Or is there something else behind?

Speaker

It's.

ROB

I I I guess personally I would say this is all bandwagoning I'm I'm not sure. I mean I do know. A lot of the people support Trump. Have always been kind of isolationist and foreign policy. So so in in that sense. Trump hit hit in an attitude or an emotion among many conservative voters that they've always felt, you know, they they kind of went along with the Bush era. Of foreign policy, where the United States used its military might, informed alliances, and got involved in conflicts around the world. But a lot of more conservative voters, particularly a lot of voters who never got university degrees, have always felt the United States should focus on issues back in the United States and not get involved in world affairs. And there's always been a strong attitude. To. Like that among conservative voters who tend to vote Republican, so Trump is probably saying things that many a lot of conservative voters think. As far as that goes. But I mean, a lot of it as far as the congressional leaders, the Republican leaders in Congress who just 10 and 20 years ago were talking about how wonderful the Iraq war was and how we had to get involved and. Stop the, you know, stop radical Islamists from taking over more territory and preventing terrorism. Some of it is just bandwagon ish. I mean, they're just, you know. This. Is what seems to be popular at the moment. Trump is popular among their party base, and they're just going along.

JOHN

That. So I'm sorry. Well, I have a follow up question and and that is the. Is it because is this movement? Away from getting involved abroad. Is this because of what happened? In Iraq.

ROB

There's always been you. You, you. You teach students. There were different lessons drawn from World War One and World War Two in the 20th century. So the, the, the, the less in the United States drew from World War One is we shouldn't have gotten involved. It wasn't our conflict. Many Americans died and the United States should stay out of world affairs and let other countries deal with their own problems. And that was the lesson a lot of Americans drew from World War One, which led to the isolation of of the 1920s. And then an isolationism. Many political scientists argue, led to the conditions that became World War 2 because the United States was staying out of the League of Nations. the United States was staying out of world affairs, and that allowed a country like Germany eventually to run amok in Europe. And and, you know, kill millions of people. In the process. So the lesson to many American leaders thought from World War 2 was the United States must be involved in world affairs to prevent things like that from happening again. And there was a bipartisan consensus for decades after World War 2 that the United States needs to be involved. That begins to fall apart after the Vietnam War. When many liberals? And Democrats decided, well, no, we DON't want to be involved in, you know, policing the rest of the world and and then to some extent for, you know, for Republicans that kind of does happen after the Iraq war. But but there's still. Well. You know, within the within the conservative movement, there still was an attitude leftover probably from the 1920s from 100 years ago of many conservatives who felt the United States should focus on the problems of Americans. And not getting involved with other countries without perhaps fully realizing that the problems of other countries eventually reach the United States if we're not involved in the rest of the world. So it might my long answer to your question is probably partly, but that would not be the full reason why.

JOHN

OK.

DON

Yeah. So we're talking about five points. Let's launch into those because they think that that might be tied into what the questions that we've been asking, which seem to be how did the political parties get to the point where they are now and the beliefs that they follow now.

ROB

Yeah. So I you know, we all as Americans and and even many political scientists have the idea that most Americans vote based on economic issues. But that that actually has not been true for most of American history. It was true. Between the 1930s and 1960s. When Franklin Roosevelt started the New Deal policies and a lot of people were attracted to the Democrats because of their views on economic. Issues. But before that, and since the 1960s, most Americans actually. Vote on on. Another basis, usually on on ethnicity or race. Or religion or region of the country they live in, and to some extent in the last 20 to 30 years, based on education level, sex and aid. So what what I teach to students is in the 19th. Then they're not the new deal called from the 1930s, which is when working class voters tended about Democrat and wealthy people were Republic. That kind of begins to fall apart in 1960s, and it's gradually happened since then, and I teach students it's due to five sets of issues. One is the military and patriotism, where you had more conservative voters support the Vietnam War. More conservative voters like to fly the American flag outside their home, more conservative voters. Get upset if football players are kneeling at a football game. More liberal voters did not like the Vietnam War and and while they respect the flag, they DON't get as enthusiastic about it. And we we've seen DONald Trump at campaign rallies hugging the American flag to show his support for flag lovers. So that issue divides liberals and conservatives and eventually Republican and Democrats second. Set of issues that I tell students about our civil rights. So in the 1960s, you of course had Southern white people resisting equal rights for African Americans to the extent possible, while liberals supported. That was the period when southern white voters who used to vote be the solid S vote Democrat for 100 years after the Civil War. Suddenly, all in math became Republican. You you have elections today in Alabama and Mississippi, where the Republican presidential candidate will win about 90% of the white vote. You know while. While you know the the Democratic candidate will win about 98% of the African American vote and it's very racially divided in modern times, you see that with immigration. So you see Conservative voters getting very upset. What? About immigrants coming, the countries especially illegal, but even legal immigrants, and you see liberals who are more welcoming of a diversity. I mean, a lot of liberals like the fact that if the people around them speak differently or look differently or act differently, a lot of concerns get upset by that. And so you see that issue kind of splitting apart the old party coalitions learn issue I discuss with the students is is the environment which becomes a big issue in the United States in the late 1960s and early 1970s. And you have liberals who support, you know, lots of regulations to prevent pollution of the water in the air. Also, to prevent climate change, you know Joe Biden supported federal funding for electric vehicle charging stations. You get conservatives who not only want to stick to their gas powered vehicles in modern times, but in the past when you have lots of regulations of pollution that prevents development of, you know, land for mining or for agriculture in the West. So you especially get a split in the western part of the United States between those who see the land as something useful for economic development and jobs and others who see the land. As something to preserve to preserve that that, you know, the human race and to and to prevent pollution and things like that. So you get a divide between the parties on those issue. Four set of issues I'd like to discuss with students. I call social issues. These are ones that revolve around religion and revolve around sex, you know, meaning as as a form of gender. So with religion, you get conservatives in the 1960s who were upset about prayer being taken out of the schools. There's a lot of conservatives today who remain upset about that. I I talked to them. I I talked to students who were upset about.

Speaker

MHM.

ROB

Players not being in school. Liberals, on the other hand, said, you know why on Earth? Or would we be praying in school? You, you get, you know, in in a state like Oklahoma, they're now trying to fund a charter school, a Catholic charter school with public funds, which the Supreme Court ruled decades ago was unconstitutional. And then and then with with, you know, related issues of women, you know, you had the equal Rights amendment. Where liberals argued for that and conservatives were against, you have the abortion issue, which divides liberals and conservatives. And you have the many LGBTQ issues in modern times where liberals and conservatives differ. I mean, I think for better or for worse, one of the most effective ads Trump ran last year, which may have won him the election, was about Kamala Harris's views on transgender issues and and the ad. Famously, I'm trying to, I'm paraphrasing here because. I DON't remember the exact words, but the ad and it was something run by Trump saying, you know, Trump is for you. She's for they slash them.

DON

Yeah.

ROB

And that just that hit a lot of more conservative voters where they really, you know, where they get, I DON't know why people get agitated, but and a lot of conservatives get agitated about the pronoun issue. And then the fifth set of issues, the final one I'll talk about is crime and law and order, where you, you know, starting in the 1960s and 1970s, where conservatives saw disorder in the streets and said, let's lock all these people. And they also argue we need more guns. We need guns to protect ourselves from criminals, and liberals will get it this way and say the more guns you have, the more crimes there's going to be. There's a very different attitudes toward guns among conservatives and liberals, and and liberals would also be more likely to say, well, let's look at the reason people commit reason people become criminals. You know, let's analyze the psychology. Behind the behavior of criminal activity, whereas A conservative or you'll just lock them up so you get these different and the death penalty, you also get a division between Conservative and Liberal. So those five sets of issues I just went over what I teach to. Students are what caused a political realignment in the United States starting in the 1960s. That's really continued to the present day. I mean, those five issues are still. Probably the five key reasons why someone is a conservative today and someone else is a liberal probably much more than economic issues as we might expect.

DON

Well, it's interesting to me too, because a lot of the things that Republicans have used to win elections over the last few years and certainly the last. Here were were those trigger issues. Like you said, the LGBTQ of the the crime in the streets, and again they tied that in very nicely with immigration saying that all the crimes and and violence in the streets were being performed by illegal aliens. So, you know, they they dovetailed everything in very nicely. So it it does seem like the Republicans have a good idea of what the triggers are and how to. Pull those triggers. Maybe better than the the Democrats at this point.

ROB

Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, it's it strikes me and I've told people this for a while that for decades, Democrats seem to think that that their path to success in the majority is reviving the New Deal coalition of the 1930s from, you know, almost 100 years ago. And, you know, and and and pursue policies that help working class voters, they may be good. Policies. But politically, they're not helping. When Joe Biden spent four years in office trying to pursue policies that he thought would provide economic development opportunities and jobs for working class people, and how did they reward the Democrats as they all voted against him, they all voted against Kamala Harris that, you know, the candidate of his party. It doesn't help. I mean I, you know. Most voters, while there are still some voters out there who will. Vote based on economic and class issues. Probably a majority voters DON't. They vote on some of these non economic issues. I was just discussing and the Democrats never quite seem to get that. They always seem to think, you know and and you know for better for worse the you know, some of the policies advocated by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, they may be good policies. I'm not judging them in that way. But as far as this idea that. Like we had full socialist policies, suddenly the New Deal coalition would come back together and and voters would be voting Democrat. I mean, to me, that's just a fantasy. I I I DON't it. That's not how most people in this country vote and. And so I I think you're correct DON. And your assessment that Republicans seem to get that more than Democrats do and that's helped, you know, Trump win 2 out of the last three elections.

JOHN

To what extent does this indicate these things you're talking about? We're talking about the changes in where the parties stand. Do these reflect the changes in where the electorate stands like? Are there people who are now voting for things? Who voted for opposite things 20 years ago?

ROB

There are some. I mean, you have people who vote for Trump, people who there are people who voted Republican for Bush 20 years ago and are now voting for the direct opposite when they vote for Trump 20 years later. So there's there's there's there's some voters who just kind of stick with the party and they'll DON't be led by the party leaders, whether it's a Bush or a. Trump. And and but there are also some voters who who do change their mind about issues. So, you know, there are some voters, you know, some people who vote Democrat, you know, 20 years ago they were conservative, but the the Republicans did something that offended them. You know, perhaps they have a family member who's gay. Or transgender and and then the Republican attitudes on those issues offend them and they suddenly become Democrat there. There are people I, I mean, I'm trying. To think there are people. You know the the, you know, Bush, the Iraq war was identified with Bush as a kind of Republican issue. I'm sure there are voters out there who perhaps a loved one died in Iraq and they decide I no longer supports this kind of policy during pursuit by the Republican Party, they started building Democrat. Now, you know, DONald Trump does not represent the same foreign policy as Bush. But those people might be voting Democrat. Ever since then, there are plenty of people. I I I actually know at least a couple of my former students who on the transgender issue that they were, they were kind of moderate sometimes voting Democrats, sometimes voting Republican. And but you know that that that, you know, I'm for you and she's for day them. Like for whatever reason that really you know you, you know, DON as you said it's a trigger and they that gets them upset and they vote and so they voted for Trump. So you know there there's some voters who are just kind of being led by the party leader and they're. But there are other voters who, you know, their views on issues evolve over time, and they're often the voters whose views evolve over time. It's almost never economic, and it's always, it's almost always one of these socio cultural issues. I was just discussing. So there's a mix. The answer support answer. I guess to your question, John. It's a mix.

DON

One of the things that we were talking about before we went on started to record today was something that has occurred to me is John and I have talked to people before about things that have happened in in the. Past. And it seemed like at the end of the Civil War, the Republicans were. For emancipation of the slaves and getting them integrated into life and the Democrats were all. Ku Klux Klan members and and that sort of thing, you mentioned it earlier, the solid South and they always voted democratic because it was anti *****. And by the time I was a kid in the 60s and 70s, had a completely changed Democrats were behind black people, 100% black people voted Democrat all the time. Republicans always voted white and and that sort of thing. So. That sort of sea change between the two parties. Are we seeing that again today with the sea change between Republicans and Democrats where the their the Republican message is creeping into places that used to be Democratic strongholds?

ROB

I I think it's Done. I think it's kind of been a gradual. Changed since the 1960s. I'm not sure anything has significantly changed, just in the last 10 years or so. I mean, one thing I like to do with my students, and this is, you know, I'll advise some of the listeners that this is a a fun thing to look at. Compare the Electoral College map of 1896. To the Electoral College map in 2012. So in 1896, everything that was blue is now red and in 1896 everything that was then red is now. Blue. And and and part of, you know, part of the reason for that flip in every part of the country has to do with those issues I just mentioned in the South, in particular, the civil rights issue helped cause most southern whites to move from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party.

DON

It's it's an interesting point in in the sense. That you would assume that city dwellers would vote Democratic and. Rural voters would. Vote Republican. That seems to be something that has continued over the years, but we did see in the vote for Trump last year, we did see we did start to see things like black males. Voting for Trump or Hispanics voting for Trump. Now Hispanic families can be kind of conserve.

Speaker

Yes.

DON

In the long run, but still it's kind of weird that they would vote for a candidate who, throughout the entire campaign, said we're going to round up all the Hispanics and kick them out of the country. You know, so that's sort of what I'm talking about, that that's sort of. Weird juxtaposition with with some of these voters.

ROB

Yeah. And there's a couple of things you said there. I mean, your, the that I'd like to address, I mean you. Did you were correct that rural voters tend to? Tend to be more conservative, vote more Republican, but there were many pockets of rural voters around the United States, especially in agricultural areas that historically were democratic until Trump. So you can go to. You know, for instance, you can go to parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, Iowa, that despite being rural and agricultural, had voted Democrat for decades, voted for Obama twice and voted for voted for Michael Dukakis for president in 1988 when he was running against the first George Bush. And and these places have just suddenly gone to Trump. So you you you get a bigger. Divide between the urban and rural areas and you had prior to Trump and to some extent, you know, rural voters just kind of think. I I DON't know. I DON't fully understand it, but they kind of think that Trump is with them, you know, he's with rural people and against those urban people and some of it relates to the issues I discussed about among Latino Americans. I think there's a, you know, a couple of things happening that, you know, Trump Trump did better than expected, the 20. 20. Among Latino American voters in in Florida and Texas as well, and and some of that. Some of that is just the kind of historic opposition of many Latino voters to communism or socialism. Which are while Alexandria Ocasio Cortez is a Puerto Rican background and Puerto Ricans historically have been the most democratic of the Latino ethnic groups. You know Cuban Americans, people whose, you know, parents or grandparents immigrated from Cuba tend to be very, very anti communist, anti socialist. And there were ads being run, advertising being run in social media feeds, going to Latino voters in Florida and Texas, which basically, you know. He was uh, Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris are being a communist or a socialist and that's a, you know, a A. Deadly. Accusation against the Democratic candidate. In addition, if you look at some of their polling data and I I you know, I'm not 100% sure how accurate the polling data is. There seems to be among both Latino voters and African American men. It seems to be also related to educational level. As I was mentioning earlier, I mean there's now a direct correlation, at least among white voters, between more years of education, voting democratic. That seems to be becoming more of a pattern now among non white voters. And so among Latino American men, basically those who have university degrees stuck with the Democrat, but those who do not have university degrees were more likely. To vote for Trump. And despite his rhetoric, I think there's also this attitude that took him on male voters, that he's rich and successful and and perhaps that's something that that a lot of young male voters would also like to have. And so they see him as a success story and someone to, you know, and they DON't, they DON't, they're they might not be fully aware that he's declared his hotels.

Speaker

Because that's.

ROB

Heard bankruptcy 4 times.

JOHN

But I think there's that attitude that he's, you know, he's wealthy and he's kind of all those things they would like to be and and and they they're it's aspirational in a way. That was the word I was waiting for that this was an aspirational vote. I mean, there are social tensions within the races in the United States and and complexities.

DON

Yeah.

JOHN

Which led to part of the vote. I mean, there was a there was a reluctance, I think, to vote for a woman, a woman of color and a woman of color who many people saw as a cop. There are, you know, there's just all this very interesting. I've never been a person quite like this, running for the top office in the country. And it seems that so many voters didn't know what to do with it or or knew. What to do?

ROB

With it, which is not voting for it. Yeah, I mean, I think you're right. That was a factor we DON't know for sure, because even if you have good pollsters. People lie. Yeah, true.

JOHN

Right. Yeah. Now, Tom Bradley effect, right, you know. Oh, yeah, I would. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.

ROB

Yeah, that that people aren't going to say that's not why they're not voting for. I mean, you know, our former President Barack Obama sensed it in a way. And I remember the campaign appearance. I think he was in Pittsburgh during, you know, last year's campaign. He just he was he was trying to address African American male voters and he was saying, you know, I, I know a lot of you aren't feeling Kamala Harris. He said. And he was trying to in a nice way say you know, you know stop opposing her because she's a woman. You know he cause he was criticizing and and he and Obama was criticized or criticizing other African American men. But I think that was probably a factor. I mean, you know, maybe not the biggest factor, but enough of a factor to cause her to lose the national popular vote by about 1 1/2%, which you know on the cost of losing the Electoral College, of course. So it's hard to tell. But I mean it, you know, my political sense is, as do your political senses kind of indicate that.

JOHN

Hmm. Really was at least one of the factors that's so interesting, isn't it? How big is the voting body in the United States, 160 million, whatever it is, that number of people, their complexities have have changed. Their concerns have changed. I mean, we're looking at.

ROB

Yeah, about, yeah. About 150, yeah.

JOHN

You know, we're not actually looking at the 1920s or the 1890s. We are looking at at this particular moment. When we used to be one thing and we're another thing.

DON

Yeah. And it and it, that was my next question to you, Rob, and that is the the, the people who are complaining about Trump constantly on Facebook and everywhere else that you hear about complaints about Trump is that he's dismantling the government, the, the people who support him, say governments bloated. Government workers aren't aren't any good. Would you know basically the kind of reasoning that he and Elon Musk are using to fire a lot of them and they go along with that. They say the government can trim down. There's a lot of bloat. There's a lot of excess. There's a lot of corruption that that goes on in government and and and just get rid of it all. But on the other hand, there are people are saying he's tearing apart the basic of basis of. Democracy. He's tearing apart the separation of powers. He's, you know, doing whatever he wants, much like a dictator would. What do you see is going from here? Is there going to be a correction or are we just going to continue to go down the Trump path and and everybody's going to let him because that seems to be. What's happening now? Everybody's just sort of. Looking the other way and let him do whatever he wants.

ROB

What's interesting, and I'm watching to see, I mean I, you know, we'll see if this happens over the next few years, if if you know, if Trump is it's it's it's both serves the full term as. Wasn't it? We'll see what happens. But I mean a lot of the cuts, I mean, what what most Americans DON't realize is, you know, most of the US government budget does not go to foreign aid. It does not go for the Kennedy Center. It does not go for all these other things that Trump is shutting down. All all this to combined is probably 1 less than 1% of. The national maybe. Maybe a little more than 1%. If you put four and eight or the national government budget, I I mean 60% of the budget is just entitlement programs and entitlement programs are Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid. And and what's interesting and to and and then, you know, another 15 to 20% is defense and there's interest on the debt. I mean all the all all the if you exclude entitlement programs interest on the debt and and military defense, the rest of the budget combined is about 1/6 of the entire budget. So if you want to make significant budget cuts, you really have to go after the entitlement programs and defense. Now, now Trump is not going after defense. Instead, his Defense Secretary has has called for increasing. It. But entitlement programs, Social Security, Medicare. Medicaid. Which is the government health insurance program for lower income people, but actually includes a lot of senior citizens who can't afford because Medicare does not cover everything particularly long term nursing home care. The people who live in Trump country, you know, are, you know, Kentucky or or Eastern Tennessee or western Virginia or many parts of Western Pennsylvania. They're the ones most likely to be hurt by that. You know, if you start cutting off programs for lower income senior citizens and you cut Social Security and you cut Medicare and you, if you cut Medicaid, you're cutting. Programs for the people who voted for Trump. In the last three elections, and I think a lot of voters, his voters actually DON't get that. I mean, a lot of his voters think always cutting foreign aid. Well, that's nice. But that's not going to amount to anything as far as balancing the budget. If they start cutting Medicaid. Uh, which which a lot of people in you know at the Appalachian part of the United States, but. And, you know, which is Prime Trump based territories where JD Vance was originally from are people they're going to finally figure out that what Trump is calling for when he wants to slash government directly affects them or are they just going. To dismiss it. And and and not understand that there's a connection between. And. Trump's rhetoric and what Trump is doing. And so I guess I'm watching to see what's going to happen over the next two years if these cuts and flashes of government continue.

DON

Yeah, well, it takes me back to the Tea Party days when we had all those conservatives showing up at town hall meetings and everything, and one guy had that famous sign. Keep your government hands off my Medicare.

ROB

I teach students about that. Time, I mean, I teach students about that. When I talk to them about Medicare.

JOHN

Well, it's interesting, isn't it? Because one can remember a time when that would have that sign would have ended with the word guns, yeah.

Speaker

Oh.

DON

Yeah. Well and and and some of what you said today, Robert is sort of. Helping fill in the gaps that I've had for a long time and and that is one of the ancillary questions to the question I have about the Democrats and Republicans flipping their appeal is the fact that Republicans consistently voted for people that wanted to take away their benefits. And I could never figure that out. And now it kind of seems like the benefits stuff doesn't occur to them. They're voting for the people that that pull those social triggers and and and again, if I'm a politician and I say I want to get rate would have raced in government and I tear out that one sixth, but I DON't touch Social Security and Medicare. I'm doing what the people want, but I'm not really affecting the budget that much. So you know I again, I, I I sort of start to see where this has gone and where it could go in.

ROB

The future? Yeah. I mean, I think your analysis there was correct. Yeah, I I it's, you know, people are largely, well, well, if you want, you know, if you depend on government benefits, voting for Democrat would seem to be in your. In your economic. Interest compared to Republicans who want to slash those government benefits, but I DON't think voters think about that. You know, they're kind of thinking US versus them and the Democrats are the, you know, the in rural areas. Democrats are the party of big government in the cities. And I DON't like that forgetting the fact that they get benefits from big government, that they depend on to survive. And and and you, you know, and on conversely, you get plenty of well off that you know you didn't get this 50 or 60 years ago, but now you get plenty of well off voters who have money and the Republicans say we want to cut your taxes and Democrats and we want to raise your taxes but these wealthy people who economically would benefit from the Republicans cutting their taxes will still vote Democrat. Because on all these non economic issues, they identify more closely with democratic values than they do with Republican values. So you, you find this happening with both sets of party bases among voters.

DON

It's all scrambled. What can I say? And it will probably stay scrambled, I guess, for a few years and and we'll, I DON't know, you and I all three of us may not be around to look back on it and say what a crazy time that was, but maybe our kids will look back and.

Speaker

Yeah.

DON

OK, we're our parents nuts.

JOHN

Do you remember when, right?

DON

Yeah, well, Robert Spiel, thanks for coming on and and sharing all your information with us. It was yeah, very terrific. And and it gave me anyway some some answers to some questions that I've been kicking around for a while. So thanks very much for coming on and helping us out.

JOHN

Yes, really. Fantastic.

ROB

Yeah. Thank you both. I had a good time talking with both of you. Thanks a lot.